2013 Prediction in MLB The Show

Posted on Nov 18 2012 - 10:55pm by Erik

So I’m kinda bored, kicking the can a bit waiting for the trade and Cabrera signing to become “official.” A poster by the handle harvey16 did a simulation in MLB The Show with the current rosters as of today. Here’s how it came out:

Cabrera
512 AB, .271 AVG, 6 HR, 44 RBI
Rasmus
528 AB, .256 AVG, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Bautista
554 AB, .245 AVG, 34 HR, 100 RBI
Reyes
585 AB, .294 AVG, 12HR, 58 RBI
Bonafacio
585 AB, .239 AVG, 6HR, 60 RBI
Lawrie
507 AB, .312 AVG, 23 HR, 80 RBI
Morrow – 8-14, 4.36 ERA
Johnson – 19-7, 3.18 ERA
Beuhrle – 18-9, 3.93 ERA
Romero – 11-9, 5.01 ERA
Happ – 11-8, 4.02 ERA
Lind
521 AB, .271 AVG, 19 HR, 59 RBI
DH – Encarnacion
543 AB, .256 AVG, 41 HR, 100 RBI
D’arnaud
413 AB, .223 AVG, 17 HR, 53 RBI

Bullpen

  • Lincoln – 3-2 3.08 ERA 99 SO
  • Oliver – 6-3 3.44 ERA 62 SO
  • Frasor – 1-3 3.40 ERA 54 SO
  • Lyon – 8-4 2.85 ERA 97 SO
  • Delabar – 6-1 2.62 ERA 69 SO
  • Santos – 5-4 4.23 ERA 71 SO
  • Janssen – 2-0 2.03 ERA 41 SO 42 Saves

Bench

  • Davis – 363 AB .245 AVG 8HR 49RBI
  • Izturis – 193 AB .254 AVG 1HR 18RBI
  • Arencibia – 250 AB .260 AVG 16HR 39RBI
  • Cooper – 75 AB .307 AVG 5 HR 15RBI

American League East

Team W L
Toronto 98 64
Tampa Bay (WC) 95 67
NY Yankees (WC) 90 72
Baltimore 87 75
Boston 69 93

Playoffs

Blue Jays beat A’s in ALDS 3 games to 1
Blue Jays beat Rays in ALCS 4 games to 3 (came back down 0-3 in series)
Blue Jays beat Dodgers 4 game to 3 and WIN WORLD SERIES (had a 3-0 series lead)

Awards

Encarnacion wins WS MVP batting .452 with 7HR and 9 RBI
Encarnacion wins playoff MVP batting .338 with 9HR and 16 RBI

  

Erik

Creator of BJF circa July 2012. Full time soldier and Blue Jays fan.

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5 Comments so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. Dylan
    Dylan November 19, 2012 at 12:29 PM -

    Rough seasons for Morrow and Romero lol. I would be ok with those results though :p

  2. Erik
    Erik November 19, 2012 at 2:17 PM -

    I didn’t include the strikeout numbers for the starting 5 but Happ had the most, like 220… Typo maybe from the post author.

  3. Dr. David Stewart December 16, 2012 at 7:22 PM -

    Could you do another simulation with Dickey included in the pitching rotation?

    • Erik
      Erik December 18, 2012 at 10:14 PM -

      This is from http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=88124

      The same guy did an updated season…

      ——————

      Just downloaded the most recent roster file with all the up to date trades including Dickey and ran a simulation for 2013 and the Jays finished with a 98-64 record good for 1st in the AL East and also the best record in the American League. Here are the final team stats.

      Jose Reyes .288 avg/.338obp/9HR/48RBI/35SB
      Melky Cabrera .255 avg/.311obp/22HR/74RBI/9SB
      Jose Bautista .238 avg/.322obp/30HR/87RBI/4SB
      Edwin Encarnacion .272 avg/.361obp/31HR/91RBI/6SB
      Adam Lind .256 avg/.318obp/26HR/87RBI/2SB
      Brett Lawrie .281 avg/.351obp/18HR/67RBI/26SB
      Colby Rasmus .257 avg/.330obp/25HR/86RBI/17SB
      JP Arencibia .265 avg/.328obp/27HR/75RBI/1SB
      Emilio Bonifacio .302 avg/.364obp/5HR/50 RBI/27SB

      Bench

      Josh Thole 204AB/.299avg/.364obp/4HR/23RBI/1SB
      Rajai Davis 78AB/.231avg/.282obp/3HR/11RBI/14SB
      Maicer Izturis 301AB/.233avg/.295obp/3HR/27RBI/4SB
      Moises Sierra 168AB/.244avg/.291obp/6HR/26RBI/3SB

      The strength of the club offensively was their balanced attack. The club averaged 4.75 runs per game(5th in MLB) without having a single player with over 100 RBI’s, yet had 6 players with over 70 RBI’s. Nobody had an oustanding season but several players did very well. Lawrie had a strong sophmore year and Bonifacio had great year being the only player on the club to hit over .300. Bautista had a poor season by his standards, hitting only .238, but still managed a respectable 30HR. The Jays hit 209HR good for 6th in the league, but had an astounding 339 doubles (best in MLB) with bonifacio leading the league with 51. They also finished 2nd in the league in triples with 38 with both Lawrie and Cabrera putting up 7 each and Reyes close behind with 6. The Jays finished tied for 8th in the league in stolen bases with 150, finishing 2nd in the league in SB% with an amazing .838 success rate. The Jays also finished 5th in the league in SLG% at .447 and 10th in OBP at .331. The Jays also had a great year defensively committing the second fewest errors in the league with 64 and also finished second to KC in fielding % at .989

      Rotation

      R.A. Dickey 225IP/15-4/3.19ERA/216SO/75BB
      Josh Johnson 228IP/15-9/3.47ERA/204SO/70BB
      Mark Buehrle 206IP/10-10/4.27ERA/78SO/55BB
      Brandon Morrow 194IP/10-6/4.45ERA/195SO/85BB
      Ricky Romero 234IP/17-5/2.50ERA/231SO/90BB

      Bullpen

      Esmil Rogers 73IP/9-11/4.03ERA/70SO/28BB
      Aaron Loup 66IP/8-2/3.65ERA/66SO/24BB
      Sergio Santos 63IP/5-3/3.13ERA/73SO/12BB
      Mike Gonzalez 44IP/3-3/3.63ERA/49S0/16BB
      J.A. Happ 41IP/1-3/4.75ERA/42SO/16BB
      Dustin McGowan 10IP/1-0/7.20ERA/11SO/4BB
      Casey Janssen 48IP/1-7/4.66ERA/43SO/10BB/41 Saves, 13 blown

      The Jays enjoyed a very successful season on the mound this year putting up a 3.60 team ERA, good for 7th overall in the league. Romero led the charges with a huge bounceback year leading the team with a sparkling 2.50ERA and also led the team in IP, Wins and Strikeouts. Romero finished 2nd in CY Young voting, narrowly losing out to Josh tomlin who put up 22 wins for Cleveland this year. Newcomers Dickey and Johnson also enjoyed great season each posting sub 3.50 ERA’s while both eclipsing 200 K’s. Buehrle had a mediocre season but was a workhorse for the club, once again pitching more than 200 innings. Morrow was the only real dissapointment in the rotation putting up a mid 4 ERA while walking almost 100 batters but still finished with a winning record thanks to the strong run support he received all season long. In the Bullpen, newly acquired Mike Gonzales enjoyed a good year. Santos had a great season coming back for surgery in the offseason and Loup also was very effective against lefties. Janssen could not replicate the great season from 2012, while still saving 41 games he also blew 13 and had an ERA north of 4.50 with a terrible 1-7 record. McGowan once again attempted to make a comeback mid season, but after only 9 relief appereances once again went down with a shoulder injury. His career appears to be over.

      Overall a very successful season for the Jays beating Boston by 3 games for their first ALE title in 20 years. They will face Texas in the ALDS, while Boston will face Cleveland after beating the Tigers in the Wild Card game.

      In the National League, the Nationals (100-62), Reds (105-57) and Dodgers (88-74) were division winners, with the Braves beating the Cardinals in the Wild Card Game. The Cubs finished with the worst record in baseball losing 107 games. The Marlins who pretty much gutted their entire team also lost 100 games as well as the Astros.

      Playoffs

      The Jays unfortuntely got swept 3-0 by the Rangers in the ALDS, getting outscored 19-7 in the process, while Cleveland beat boston in 5 games in the other series. In the National League both series went the distance with Washington and Atlanta prevailing. Texas beats Cleveland in 6 games to with the ALCS and Washingon beats Atlanta in 5 games.

      The Washington Nationals are world series champs sweeping the Rangers 4 straight to win their first ever WS title. Once again the Rangers are bridesmaids.

      IMO, the game did a pretty good job of simulating the 2013 season. The stats all seem very plausible. Let me know what you think?

  4. Adam Barnes
    Adam Barnes January 6, 2013 at 5:00 AM -

    I honestly believe that the plane will have to crash to stop this team from winning 90 games.

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